Hospitals fail or economy fail? You choose.

The CoronaVirus / aka Covid19 Catch-22

You can’t have your cake and eat it too.

This is a long post because the issues are not simple.

The coronavirus has created an impossible situation for governments around the world.  They must choose between health care and the economy.  It is impossible to have both at the same time.

It doesn’t matter if you have universal healthcare or private healthcare.  The issue isn’t how healthcare is financed.  China has government healthcare.  Italy has universal healthcare.  The coronavirus overwhelmed both.

Here is the problem in a nutshell.  The virus spreads very quickly.  With an R0 of between 2 and 3, it “explodes” quickly.  See the comparison chart.

About 20% of the people who get sick must be hospitalized and provided acute care - think ICU.  These patients currently average about 21 days from entry to exit.  That is 21 days that hospital bed cannot be used for any other purpose.   No country has sufficient hospital beds available IF too many cases happen at the same time.

The only way to lower the number of patients needing these ICU beds is to lower the number of patients, especially those who are at higher risk - elderly and those with preexisting conditions like diabetics.

The only way to lower the number is to keep people separated.  The virus needs a new person to infect to be able to spread.  Without a new victim, it will die. 

 If it was possible to place each person in the USA in a separate room for 15 days, the virus would probably be history.  The sick people would either die or recover, but there would be no new cases to continue the spread.

But that isn’t feasible.

So we instead focus on trying to separate the known sick people from those who appear to be healthy.

The problems are (1) without testing, we cannot know who all are infected.  A person can be infected without having any symptoms.  Some show symptoms between 2 and 14 days of being sick.  However it seems some may never show symptoms.  And (2), We don’t have the ability today to test every citizen.

This is a new virus.  No person has any natural immunity.  To gain immunity, you must either first get sick and recover OR have a vaccination.  There is no vaccine yet so option two isn’t an option.

Scientists say the virus will continue to spread until at least 60% of the population have immunity.  At that time the virus will have trouble finding new hosts and may die or may become a seasonal illness like the flu is today.  

In order to reach that point and NOT have the hospitals overwhelmed, it is necessary to slow the spread - we can’t stop it - so the number of sick at any point in time is within the hospital’s ability to provide good, quality care.  We must lower the peak.

That is why social (physical) distancing is required.

So to have good healthcare we need to shutdown the economy.

If people are distancing themselves sufficiently to prevent the spread from overwhelming the hospitals, people are not able to work.  That means businesses and the economy fail.

To have a healthy economy, you must have people working.  If people are working, people aren’t keeping an adequate distance so too many get severely ill and the hospitals fail

Hospitals fail or economy fail?  You choose.

So it becomes a balancing act.  Enough social distancing to limit the spread so those who get sick can get proper medical treatment but enough time working to keep businesses and the economy afloat.

The study in the UK suggests that to defeat the virus initially would require a very long period of shutdown.  I think they say at least 5 months.

Obviously economies won’t survive 5 months of shutdown.

So the idea is to probably have alternating periods of work / closure.  For periods of time, societies will isolate and shutdown activities to slow the virus followed by periods of back to work during which cases will again increase.  They talk about waves of infection and spread followed by shutdown.  Alternating health / economy.

This would continue until the population develops enough immunity that hospitals are no longer threatened during the peak.  That will require either a vaccine being developed and deployed OR 60% of the population getting sick and recovering.

So when President Trump says the government will revisit the current social distancing  / business shutdowns in 15 days, this is what he is talking about.  

Following is now my view (not scientific studies):

China shut down Hubei from January 23 until now (Wuhan is still mostly shutdown).  The rest of the country for 30 days.  BUT China had a single known source to focus on containing.  Other countries are not in that position.

Initially the US could focus on limiting the virus from entering the country from China.  That worked so long as the virus was contained to China.  Then it spread to Japan, South Korea, and Singapore.  These countries detected the virus early so it was still possible to prevent th entry into the US by monitoring and controlling who entered the country.

BUT then Italy and Iran.  The virus entered those countries undetected and spread.  By the time the world knew those countries had a problem, it had already spread beyond those countries.  No possibility of tracing contacts.  People had it who didn’t know they had it who transferred it to others who ….

Now it was in the USA and other countries in multiple locations, spreading undetected.

That is the world as it exists today.  Countries can’t focus on closing 1 area as China could.

Back to the science:

Since we can’t afford to shutdown for months, at some time the governments must allow the virus to start spreading again by letting people return to work.  This will be a second wave.  However, during the second wave, a portion of the population will now have immunity from being sick during the first wave.  This means some will not be able to get sick nor transmit the virus so the rate of spread should be slower than in the first wave. (NOTE:  This should be reversed in China since 90% of first wave was in Hubei; the rest of China will have a higher rate).  Also it means some may be able to keep working since they won’t be at risk.

How long will immunity from being sick and recovering last?  Scientists don’t know.  We only have about 3 months of data.

 Hospitals fail or economy fail?  It’s going to be a balancing act.

PS:  We can hope that the virus is influenced by Summer but we can’t depend on it.  Even if it is, that just gives the Northern Hemisphere a longer breather since it means the Southern Hemisphere would be hit harder during that time and in the autumn it would hit the US again probably. 

During the lulls, hopefully science will find medicines that help the ill recover faster, hospitals can expand ICU capacity, medical equipment can be manufactures, and vaccines can be discovered.

Buy Time

The scientific study is located here:  

 https://doi.org/10.25561/77482   but others have issues similar opinions.  If you want recommendations on scientists / doctors to follow on Twitter, let me know.

Baby abandoned due to Covid-19 finances

 One of the biggest issues with Covid 19 in China is economic. Since the government "lock downed" almost all business except what it considered essential services, people and businesses have had no income.

This has been confirmed by my Chinese friends as a real story - a young baby left at an orphanage with a note explaining they had no money and no way to care for the child.

They hoped IF they lived to return and claim the baby once they could once again work.

Time to Catch up - CoronaVirus aka Covid19 aka Wuhan Flu

This is just to collect my posts on Facebook about the CoronaVirus into one place in Chronological order.  Then in the future I can posts updates about Shenzhen, China and the world situation.

For now it is the text without the images.  I'll try to add in the omitted images as I can.  So visit back to see the posts with images.

January 26, 2020

People are wondering about the Wuhan virus. There is good and bad news. The good news is it appears to be no worse health wise than the flu many of you may have or may have had there in the US. People get a fever and a dry cough and about a week later more severe symptoms but it isn’t any more deadly it seems than other flu viruses.

What has people worried is the unknown. Scientists still don’t know how it spreads nor how to stop it. That and the fact the number of people infected are much higher than reported. China is reporting cases that are more or less tripled verified - the person is sick and dna tests verify it is this strain and then the National center verifies it so about 72 hours afterwards. HK reports 5 people but then says 107 suspected. You can extrapolate that out.

From within Wuhan, reports are the hospitals are overwhelmed. That means the number of people who think they are sick is much much higher than 2000. Wuhan is a city of 11 million people. One report from Wuhan said one hospital had over 4000 patients but many people are turned away because of no space.

The next 2 weeks will be crucial as Chinese New Year travelers return to their homes. This is when the risk of spreading the virus increases.

I have no concerns for myself. I am healthy and not in a high risk environment. Those at most risk are the elderly and children and people with preexisting health issues. It is just my guess, but I suspect smokers are also at higher risk.

February 3, 2020

MOST of the Corona Virus cases are still in Hubei Province - account for 75% or so of all new cases and 64% of total so it skews the numbers. It seems the Chinese governments plan to keep everyone home may work. The blue line is a pandemic line; the green line isn't. My guess is that if they subtract cases in Hubei, the numbers in China and worldwide wouldn't be pandemic but closer to what Guangdong and Shenzhen look like. Guangdong has the 3rd most cases but the increase in cases isn't exponential.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 has a good graphic and updated numbers of the virus.

This next week will see people returning from their hometowns although China has extended the Spring Festival holiday. Saturday will be 15 days after they quarantined Hubei and that is the longest incubation period they suspect so they hope the cases will show a decline.

From February 8, 2020

Don't believe everything you hear or read. Is the situation in China bad? Yes, especially if you are in Hubei. Outside of Hubei, however, it really isn't. The borders to Hubei province were closed on January 23, just before Chinese New Year. That meant a lot of people were confined in an area where a new Corona Virus was spreading without adequate resources. The people of Hubei have paid a steep price to protect the rest of China and indeed the world.

Guangdong is about 25% larger in land size than the State of Arkansas but has a population of over 100 million. The 2 largest cities here are Guangzhou and Shenzhen - where I live. Shenzhen's normal population is about 18 million but many people are back in their "hometowns" so maybe 12 million are here. The total number of people sick in Shenzhen is 351 while in all of Guangdong it is just over 1,000. You can do the math. Guangdong has the 3rd most cases in China. So outside of Hubei, the spread of the virus hasn't been that severe.

Part of the reason is that EVERY person who is sick or thought to be sick is isolated and EVERY person known to have had contact with the sick person is traced and those people are also checked daily and limited in their movements.

The time a person has to show signs of being sick is estimated to be 3 to 14 days. The last Hubei person left Hubei on January 23. So 14 days has past. And the reported cases here have dropped - a lot.

In Hubei it is different because sick people haven't all been identified. So you still have the possibility of a person being sick around a lot of healthy people there.

Here, I went to cross the border at Hong Kong on Thursday. I traveled by subway and bus. I had my temperature taken at least 8 times to verify I had no symptoms. This is the norm here now and across China outside of Hubei. Every time I enter my apartment building, my temperature is checked. I go to WalMart, my temperature is checked. I take the subway, my temperature is checked. I eat at KFC, my temperature is checked.

Outside of Hubei, the situation is showing signs of control. I wish they told us how many of the new cases were from the group of people they were watching because of known contact with an infected person (They are watching 189,600 people nationwide as of yesterday).

On the negative side, the fatality rate is much higher than the media tells you. I've read where WHO is saying 2% and WHO knows better. You can't calculate the fatality rate based on how many have died compared to how many have been diagnosed. Too many people are still sick. It's like saying the recovery rate is 98%. It is NOT true.

Only 2 studies have been done that I could find following a group of patients. One was 99 patients, the other 41. Both are reported in a UK Medical Periodical The Lancelet. 11 of the 99 died but 50+ were still hospitalized so at least a 11% fatality rate. 6 of the 41 so at least a 15% fatality rate. Both were done early though in January before sources poured into Hubei. Almost 70% of all confirmed cases are in Hubei and almost all deaths.

There is a lot we don't know. Are the numbers from China real? Some yes and some no. Inside Hubei, it is impossible to know the number of sick, or fatalities because resources are limited. Outside of Hubei, the numbers are more trustworthy.

February 9, 2020

Two news articles in today's South China Morning Post somewhat tells the tale here in China.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3049669/it-does-not-look-good-wuhan-doctors-soldier-dire-conditions the situation in Hubei is dire. The number of infected is unknown.

2. https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3049641/megacities-put-coronavirus-entry-barriers-china-goes-back Elsewhere in China, daily life has been stagnant and controls are in place to prevent the virus from spreading.

Out of control vs in control.

The economic impact will be huge. This week is when work is set to resume after people have been on holiday since January 24 (or earlier). Normally it is 7 days off but with the Cornona virus it was extended by the government. For the most part, people have simply stayed at home only going out to do essential things like shopping for food.

It is unknown what the Chinese government will do with the people who went to Hubei for Chinese New Year. They have been trapped there since January 23 - under much stricter quarantine conditions. They are at much higher risk than people elsewhere. I personally am hoping they will be evacuated back to their residences in other parts of China after being checked for symptoms - get them out and let them be quarantined for 14 days in a safer locality than Hubei. It would help Hubei also since it should help break the epidemic there.

So yes, inside Hubei the situation is bad, very bad. Outside Hubei, it isn't. Guangdong where I live is now listed as the second most infected province but that is just a little over 1000 cases, all in hospitals getting treatments, only about 10% severe and so far 1 death. New cases have been reduced - 20, 25, 20, 17 - the last 4 days after hitting 114 on February 3. I haven't seen yesterdays numbers yet but I expect it to be similar. The crisis here is fear more than reality, and economic.

What I see: when people are in close contact with people with the virus, the virus spreads quickly. You see this in Hubei and the Japanese cruise ship. When people who are sick are able too be identified early and isolated, the severity of the illness is less and the spread is in essence cut off. You see that here in Shenzhen.

This week will be telling - here in Shenzhen as people go back to work, everyone will have a heightened awareness of the virus. Companies will perform health checks daily as employees come to work and everyone taking the subway will be checked. That means delays as people are processed but it also means the risk here of the virus spreading is not high at all.

As a Guardian [newspaper] headline says today, 'Misinformation on the coronavirus might be the most contagious thing about it'."

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51429400

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/feb/08/misinformation-coronavirus-contagious-infections

Excellent Opinion piece. Now I'll see if I can find his book.

Final Corona Virus Post for now:

What do we know / What do we NOT know that is important about the Corona Virus?

We Know:

1. It isn’t an Influenza but rather a variety of Corona Virus. I thought corona was a variety of Influenza but it isn’t.

2. It seems to be more contagious than SARS or MERS with an R0 of 2.5 to 4 estimated (How many people 1 person infects on average).

3. The number of people who develop Severe and Critical Cases (10 to 20% of cases so far).

4. People can be asymptomatic - have the illness but no symptoms.

What we don’t know yet:

1. Exactly how it is transmitted; it is believed to mostly be transmitted by contact and not aerial;

2. The Incubation or latency time - wide range of 3 to 14 days has been postulated;

3. The Average Recovery Time;

4. The Percentage of people who recover;

5. The percentage of people who die (Fatality Rate); The only case studies show 11 to 15% but are incomplete - you can read them in the British Medical Journal The Lancet; https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30211-7 and https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30183-5

6. The fatality rate of people with Severe or Critical (2 case studies show almost 50%);

7. How many “new" cases are from people Suspected to have it or are under medical observation as opposed from being from the general population?;

8. Best treatment; nor

9. Can it be transmitted by someone asymptomatic?

February 10, 2020

Death Rates

China and WHO have been misleading people by talking about death rates. China has started publishing death rates and WHO has been talking about it also BUT both are using deaths / total confirmed cases and WHO knows better.

People who get sick do NOT immediately die. People are reported sick, they are hospitalized (hopefully) and over time they either recover or die. It is only at that point a death rate can be calculated just as it is only at that point a recovery rate can be calculated. To say this Corona Virus has a lower death rate than SARS or any other epidemic is misleading and they know it.

Let’s look at the numbers:

As of yesterday there were 40,171 confirmed cases in China. I say about because the official numbers don’t add up. See below. The total number reported as Recovered and Discharge is 3281. The total deaths in China is reported as 908. So we have 908 deaths out of a total of 4,189 resolved cases. That is a death rate of 21.68%

I don’t think this is an accurate measure of the death rate either, but I can assure you the 908 / 40,171 (2.26%) isn’t. Of the 35,982 or so patients still reported as being in the hospital in China, 6484 (16.14%) are reported to be in severe or critical condition. It would probably be fairer to compare deaths to the number of cases as of 5 or 10 days ago. That would come closer to showing a real death rate. The good news if you do that is that the death rate in Hubei is declining whether you use a 5 day lag (4.43%) or a 10 day lag (15%). See my chart.

Stats not adding up - Hubei for hospitalization and National for Total cases

For the last 2 days the official numbers for confirmed cases appear to be off. These are the official numbers - I’m not saying they are accurate, but assuming they are, they don’t add up.

For February 7, there were 34,560 reported confirmed cases in China. On February 8, the official report says there were 2656 NEW confirmed cases for a total of 37198. But, unless my math skills have eroded, 34,560 + 2556 = 37,216. WHO for the time period reports 37,251. Not a big difference but an unexplained difference. Similarly for yesterday, Feb. 9 China reported 3062 NEW cases for a total now of 40,171. Again, you do the math. 37,198 (the lower number from Feb 8.) + 3062 = 40,260. The math doesn’t add up. 34,560 + 2656+3062= 40,278 or 107 more cases. Not a huge number but why are there any discrepancies?

In Hubei, the statistics that don’t add up are the number of patients in the hospital. This discrepancy started on Feb 2. If you take the total number of confirmed sick and subtract the number who have recovered and those who died you should have the number in the hospital. The math showed that up until February 2. On Feb. 2, there were 914 less patients reported in the hospital than there should have been. Feb. 3 to date the number deficit has been: 1722, 3052, 4169, 4873, 3304, 3888 and 4805 as of yesterday at midnight. There is a growing number of people unaccounted for in the official statistics in Hubei. This may be people who have been placed in facilities other than hospitals but if so the reports don’t say.

Links to official reports: Here are the ones I’m looking at daily and draw my numbers from:

Chinese National Health Commission - http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/list_gzbd.shtml

Hubei Province - Facebook wouldn’t allow it to be posted

Guangdong Province: http://wsjkw.gd.gov.cn/zwyw_yqxx/index.html

City of Shenzhen: http://www.sz.gov.cn/cn/xxgk/zfxxgj/tzgg/index.html

WHO - https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/situation-reports

Live Update Sites:

https://ncov.dxy.cn/ncovh5/view/pneumonia

http://who.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/c88e37cfc43b4ed3baf977d77e4a0667

https://wuflu.live/en/

Note: WHO is about 24 hours behind real time

South China Morning Post - scmp.com has a widget that keeps the World Stats but you need to open an article about the virus to see it.

also February 10, 2020

Why is posting a link to the Hubei government website against community standards? Puzzled.

more on the 10th

Only 4 new cases reported in Shenzhen yesterday and 31 in all of Guangdong. The trend here is positive. Hubei remains a disaster area.

For those who don't know, the Chinese Government has enormous control that other governments don't. People are not allowed to live just anywhere. If you are from Beijing and want to move to Shenzhen, you must get approval. The government more or less knows where everyone is.

When I traveled last month, I did not have to show my id at Airport security. I walked up to the security gate and it scanned my face and the doors opened. All 10 of my fingerprints and my face are in their computer database.

So when a person travels, China knows where they left from and where they have been. You check into a hotel? Your face is scanned.

So now there is this virus, when someone gets sick, the government here very quickly knows what train, plane, bus etc they were on and who else was on the plane, train, etc...

They are able to trace who may be sick and isolate them for observation.

Other countries including the US don't have that type of information trail NOR the legal right to force you into isolation if there is no evidence you are a danger to others.

HK is having trouble tracing contacts of infected people, Singapore is having trouble tracing contacts, but in China it is the norm outside of Hubei.

Hubei is it's own unique world today and not a good one.

image

February 11, 2020

New requirements across China to contain the virus. Each person must register and show their personal QR code to enter their own apartment building. No visiting others unless they happen to be your neighbor.

This is being implemented as people are returning from their Chinese New Year holidays in anticipation that some my be infected. No idea how long it will last.

images

It took 30 minutes for the lady in the management office to complete my form for me. It wanted details of my trip in January - dates, flight and train numbers, hotels, etc. But I’m registered now.

Also February 11

This is in fact what Chinese scientists have been saying based apparently on the experience with SARS. Studies have also shown other variations of the Corona Virus to thrive in cold dry conditions with an optimum temperature of 5C and 20% humidity.

No idea if the US CDC agrees with Chinese National Health Commission or not, but President Trump is simply accepting what the “experts” here are saying.

USATODAY IMAGE

https://www.accuweather.com/en/health-wellness/spring-may-impact-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus/675372. Says spring may diminish the corona virus.

February 12, 2020

Even as the US focuses on the Corona Virus here in China, news in China is spreading about the flu spreading in the US.

2 images

There’s an app here that shows you where the confirmed cases came from - you can see where they were in relation to where you are. The confirmed are in the hospital but people fear being close to where an infected person was located thinking others in the neighboring area could now be hosts of the virus.

You will see so far I am nor close to any.

images

Just to compare:

The Corona Virus spreads quickly especially among close contacts so in that way it is similar to the flu. Health wise it is much more serious with 12 to 25% of the patients developing severe cases and a death rate that will probably be between 3 and 10% when all is said and done ( although many of those are in situations with inadequate care). So for the elderly and people who are already sick, it is a problem. It seems if you get treatment quickly, the severity is less. Here in SZ about 10% of the illnesses are severe. In Hubei, it is over 25% now.

To put it in perspective, with 22 million flu cases in the US, there are about 12,000 deaths. If you had the same rate as the Corona Virus, you’d have 660,000 deaths.

Again, it seems that if steps are not taken to confine the I’ll quickly and their contacts, the corona virus can quickly get out of control - see Hubei and the cruise ship. I don’t feel there is a huge threat here in Shenzhen because authorities have isolated the people who are infected and they can trace who had contact with that person. Other countries will struggle to do that.

In Hubei, the problem will linger. Outside of China, the cases will grow because the ability to isolate contacts doesn’t exist. Hopefully, now China has allowed international experts in, they can start making more progress on finding remedies.

February 13, 2020

Part of the truth comes out. Is it a coincidence that Hubei decides to “update their reporting standards” to match the rest of China after International Experts arrive in Hubei? We’ve known the numbers from Hubei were not accurate. We still don’t know if they are accurate but you can see the mess Wuhan and Hubei are in. Beijing is trying to spin it but it is simply what they have been covering up.

14840 NEW cases - or previously hidden cases - and 242 deaths.

4 images

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51048366

February 14, 2020

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3050311/its-pneumonia-everybody-china-knows-about-many-deaths-will-never

I still think the other locations are reporting accurately or as accurate as circumstances allow. But in Hubei the government has not reported the whole situation. The BBC is reporting that 2 citizen journalist who were posting about the real circumstances have suddenly disappeared. China has increased censorship of negative news. It is trying to portray itself as open and transparent but that is to maintain as they say social order. It wants Chinese citizens to believe the national government is working hard for them and the problem with the cover up was local bad eggs. That’s the story they are selling. Articles like this one would not be allowed to circulate on a WeChat or Weibo or at least I doubt it.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51486106

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51440129

Here in Guangdong, things are quiet. 20 new cases province wide yesterday with 9 in Shenzhen. 48 people were discharged so the total in hospitals is going down and suspected cases are now just 17. Of the 927 people hospitalized in Guangdong, 109 are listed as severe or critical 3 less than yesterday.

So in Hubei, it’s a nightmare. Other locations in China, the finances are a bigger concerned as lack of work means lack of income.

Any questions? Ask.

February 15, 2020

Graphs show the big picture - generally good news. Yesterday marked the 14th day after January 31 - the day GD has the most new cases (127). February 3 had a 1 day spike (114), but since it’s been a steady decline until yesterday when GD went up to 33 new cases from 20 largely due to Dongguan (8 new cases). Shenzhen had 6 new cases reported yesterday. Out of 406 total cases, 104 have recovered - over 25% with no fatalities reported. Shenzhen is now having more people discharged daily than new cases. Currently 302 remain in the hospital.

Wuhan continues to be a problem and I still don’t trust the numbers from there. The national composite numbers and the Hubei composite numbers don’t match. As you can see there is almost a 10,000 persons difference in Hubei on hospitalized (total cases -recovered - deaths) should equal the number of hospitalized. Nationally it balances. But in Hubei there are almost 10,000 more listed sick than shown hospitalized. I could explain that by saying there are 10,000 sick who have no hospital bed BUT the national number should show that also and it doesn’t. Hmmmm

But overall in China, excluding Hubei, the picture is good. Another week should show almost no new cases.

7 images

Finally did a graph on cases outside of Mainland China. The cruise ship played a huge role in the shape of the graph. It went from a handful of cases to almost 300 - 218 on the graph since I used WHO reports for cases outside of a China and they 24 hours behind.

2 images

The latest numbers from here, Shenzhen, remain positive. For the second straight day there was just 1 new case in Shenzhen and 6 total for all of Guangdong. The last 2 images show a continued discrepancy based on Hubei. The national numbers and Hubei numbers don’t align. 6 images

February 18, 2020

I haven't looked at the numbers from yesterday yet since my vpn has a rare good connection, I'm making use of it first.  I can't connect to the Chinese websites that report the statistics if I have my vpn on.

What we see in the official reports show a decrease in new cases while there is an increase in people recovering and being released from the hospital.  Can you rely on these numbers?  Again, I think outside of Hubei the numbers are reasonably accurate but there is a reason China doesn't want WHO experts visiting Hubei.  The situation in Hubei doesn't add up in many ways.  China doesn't want people they can't control visiting - the truth might get out.  That's my take.

On another note, starting yesterday Shenzhen is tracking every person who rides on the metro.  To get on the metro you must clear security as always but now that includes the thermal temperature scan.  After that you must show your QR code that identifies you by your phone number which they scan showing you are getting on the metro.  Then when you enter the metro car you must scan a QR code which shows which car you are in.  Then if anyone is sick later, they can find the people exposed - in theory.  With millions of people riding the metro, it's going to be interesting to see it in practice as people get on and off and move from 1 car to another.  So far Shenzhen has not resumed work in mass.  I'm guessing this roll out is clearly the way for that to happen.

That's why I say the numbers outside of Hubei are more accurate.  The government is able to track every movement.

2 images

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51520622#

The latest numbers from here, Shenzhen, remain positive.  For the second straight day there was just 1 new case in Shenzhen and 6 total for all of Guangdong.  The last 2 images show a continued discrepancy based on Hubei.  The national numbers and Hubei numbers don’t align.

6 images

February 19, 2020 Outside of Wuhan, the numbers yesterday in China are way down. 56 cases in mainland China excluding Hubei. 33 cases in Hubei excluding Wuhan. 1660 new cases in Wuhan. In Guangdong Province, yesterday saw 3 new cases. All 3 were in the city of Huizhou (pronounced similar to “way joe”). No new cases locally.


February 21, 2020

Numbers don’t match

As China continues to play it’s shell game, the numbers coming from National and Hubei don’t add up.

http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/yqtb/202002/ac1e98495cb04d36b0d0a4e1e7fab545.shtml

There is a discrepancy of 220 new cases between what NHC reports for Hubei (631) and what Hubei reports (411). Hubei Hospitalized continues to be short of what the math says it should be rising to 6,326 (yesterday the difference was -5794 and the day before -7054). If I haven't explained it before, the total number of reported cases minus the recovered and deaths should equal the number of people in the hospital. Nationally, China's numbers do yet in Hubei they do not. There are 6,326 people unaccounted for that should be in the hospital. How can the Hubei numbers be off by 6 to 10,000 and the national numbers equal 0? That's China. Don't trust the reports as they relate to Hubei. There's a reason China wouldn't let WHO experts go there.

Locally, the situation is good. 3rd day of no new cases and just 1 in all of Guangdong in Dongguan.

Nationally I've seen a report in the South China Morning Post that there have been 2 big clusters in Beijing AT 2 hospitals. There is nothing in the official report mentioning it BUT the number of cases in China outside of Hubei rose from 45 on Wednesday to 258 yesterday. The same article quoted a local official as saying the 2 clusters would delay the reopening of business another 14 days. I'm hoping it is just in Beijing.

I'm not sure anyone can access the China websites outside of China. They won't open for me when I'm using my VPN. I have screen shots of the English translation (Google Chrome will translate the Chinese into passable English).

I had to delete the link to Hubei because Facebook says it is against Community Standards. Really Facebook?

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https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3051667/hospital-coronavirus-clusters-hit-beijings-plans-get-back-normal

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2020-02-21/cluster-cases-at-beijing-hospitals-sparked-fear-of-virus-spread-101518348.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/20/world/asia/china-coronavirus.html

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/02/20/807745305/coronavirus-2-princess-diamond-cruise-ship-passengers-die-after-contracting-covi

Articles about the outbreak in Beijing, South Korea and Iran.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3051628/chinese-state-media-humiliating-women-nurses-coronavirus

 February 22, 2020

Doesn't seem to be a lot of information in the US news about the coronavirus aka covid 19. I've been looking today at different publications Fox News website has a link just for coronavirus and there is a good video with a NY doctor. But world news such as the big outbreaks in Iran and Italy seem to be missing.

In China, they continue to play games with the way they report cases in Hubei. I wasn't aware until I read a report from CNN that China was not including people who tested positive but didn't show symptoms.

YouTube report by Peak Prosperity revealed that only 3 states in the US currently have test kits that are functioning. Apparently the others all have faulty parts - haven't visited the CDC site yet.

China has now agreed to let the WHO experts visit Wuhan.

Not much news about the hospita lclusters in Beijing being reported.

Prisons in China have now reported lots of cases - over 500. I'm not clear if those are included in any of the reports yet.

I have said before I think the situation here in Shenzhen and Guangdong is safe. The number of new cases are few.

Troubling though are reports now that "recovered" patients may continue to be contagious for a period of time. If that is true, expect cases to rise again.

Outside China,and not yet making headlines in the US, Iran seems to have a full scale epidemic previously hidden. The lady from Canada who tested positive after visiting Iran may have lifted the veil. Italy also apparently is reporting a major outbreak.

February 23, 2020

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3051966/coronavirus-wuhan-quarantine-all-cured-patients-14-days-after

Not good news - Hubei alone has about 20,000 people who have been released as "cured".  If they can spread the illness still (and it is an IF because researchers and doctors don't know) there will be another wave coming.

Iran and the CoronaVirus- Iran has now officially admitted to 28 cases. WHO is talking about being worried about how fast it happened but anyone who has followed the development of the CoronaVirus understands this isn't "new".

The first 2 cases reported in Iran were elderly men who died soon after going to the hospital. What this indicates is they had been sick probably a minimum of a week to 10 days. You already have 1 known case in Canada that came from Iran and one in Lebanon. That isn't from a handful of people being sick.

Stories coming from Iran are stories of Iran wanting to push their election on Friday and NOT let the public know anything about CoronaVirus cases. Apparently Iran had limited the people who could be in the election to mostly "hardliners" refusing to let others who were more moderate in the views stand for election including some who are currently members of their parliament. Iran wanted a large turn out.

Typically, they now accuse the US and others of using false claims of the corona virus to reduce the turnout which is low because Iranian people do not support the hardline regime.

Anyway, the Iranian people were caught completely by surprise. One Iranian female posted that the first they had heard of the CoronaVirus was when the news suddenly announced 2 people died and schools were closed. They are now hearing that many across thew country are infected. She was asking online for what they should do. The government was telling them nothing.

Two news articles I found today.

https://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Irans-government-and-media-lied-about-coronavirus-outbreak-riots-erupt-618431

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/middle-east/article/3051965/iran-takes-drastic-steps-contain-rapid-coronavirus-outbreak

From initial reports online, it would seem Iran may be come the next Hubei. The illness was covered up until it is now too late to contain it. Look for the 28 to mushroom to hundreds or thousands over the next few days. So far you are seeing people tested after they are seriously ill only. A report in the TehranTimes yesterday indicated at least 700 hospitalized and more trying to get into hospitals. Just like in Wuhan at the beginning. Don't expect much transparency out of Iran though.

Depending upon how transparent Iran is now with the numbers, expect Iran to quickly move up the global leader board for confirmed cases. The most recent number I've seen from Iran is 43 confirmed cases and 8 dead BUT you have the government saying "go about business as normal" justifying their concealing the virus because it takes 2 weeks before the effects are completely known - I posted screenshots of the Tehran Times news article - I can only access the online paper if I use a vpn connecting through Russia (I was surprised a direct connection from China isn't possible).

There are also reports that North Korea has cases but of course North Korea is not saying anything. They have closed their borders though with China and Russia so you know something is amiss.

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February 24

Tom Cotton can take a bow - China is finally admitting, to a degree, what scientist outside China have said for a long time. The Virus did NOT originate in the Wuhan Seafood Market AND it probably started much earlier than reported.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3051981/coronavirus-did-not-originate-wuhan-seafood-market-chinese

On the negative side, they also now say a person is contagious 48 hours BEFORE having any symptoms. That spells major trouble if it’s true.

What does 64,084 + 398 equal? How about 46,201 + 348? I bet you didn’t get the same answer as China. In China, the totals are 64,287 and 46,607. This is the new math for Hubei or some of it. Yesterday the total number of cases reported for Hubei were 64,064. They said they had 398 new cases but then reported a total of 64,287 or 203 less. But for the city of Wuhan, they reported an increase of 348 new cases. Yesterdays total reported was 46,201. But today they say the total is 46,607 an increase of 406 or fifty-eight more than they say. Confusing math.

Latest from Shenzhen - 3 days with no new cases locally and just 3 new cases each of the last 2 days in all of Guangdong. With both Shenzhen and Guangzhou reporting now new cases, it's a good sign. Guangdong today announced reducing the alert level and later Wuhan announced it would start letting some non-residents leave to return to their homes. Based on existing rules, expect those who are allowed to leave to be quarantined when they arrive in their resident city.

I'm hoping I can resume teaching classes next week as Shenzhen shifts into management mode.

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